Israel's Strikes on Iran : Audacious, Impressive but still a Dangerous Gamble
June is clearly the month for striking the nuclear facilities of Israel’s adversaries. On 7 June 1981, Israel attacked Iraq’s nuclear reactor in Osirak. Following the strike on Iraq, Israel’s ambassador in Britain, Shlomo Argov, wrote that Israel’s readiness to “shock” the Middle East by destroying the nuclear reactor would make British policymakers sit up and take notice of Israel’s audacity and courage. While the British would view the bombing raid as an act of “dangerous adventurism”, wrote Argov, they would also be aware that an isolated Israel pushed into a corner would not be any easier to deal with.
This is precisely the mindset of Israel right now. A siege mentality. Pushed into the corner. Israel will do what it needs to do and no one should mess with us. Israel’s president Chaim Herzog quoted from Chapter 38, verse 38 in Psalms: “I will pursue my enemies and overtake them, neither will I return until they are destroyed.” ‘Rising Lion’ the codename for the operation against Iran is based on a verse from the Book Numbers. The prophet Bilaam thinks he is going to curse the children of Israel, but ends up blessing them, declaring that they will “rise up like a lion.” I find these biblical references very disturbing, and find my mind drifting to Samuel Jackson in Pulp Fiction: “And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers.” It might go down well among many Israelis, but it smacks of messianism.
Still, for most of his time as prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu has been relatively cautious when it came to the use of force. He has had plenty of opportunities to strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities but chose not to do so. He has now lost any sense of restraint, for better or for worse. The threat from Iran has been Netanyahu's obsession from day one, and this is the moment he has been waiting for. The fact that Netanyahu chose to launch this attack without the Americans appears a dangerous and reckless gamble. Could Israel not have waited for the talks to exhaust themselves and then act with the Americans? Yet it is perfectly possible that the Trump administration has been playing a double game with the Iranians while giving the Israelis the green light for the operation. Right now, Trump looks very weak. Just look at how Putin is running rings round him.
The timing of the attack on Iran looks suspicious, but you can say exactly the same thing about Menachem Begin’s attack on Iraq in 1981 which clearly helped his Likud party in the elections which took place a short time later. And the Israeli public was very supportive of what Begin did. It cannot be denied: the attack on Iran has wide support in Israel. Even Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats party who has been outspoken in his criticism of Israel’s war in Gaza, has expressed strong support for the attack on Iran. There is little doubt that almost any other Israeli leader would have authorized the attack on Iran, because Iran is at the point of no return with its nuclear programme. A nuclear-armed Iran would have cover to do what it likes in the region and beyond. Look at the role Iran has played in the war in Ukraine with its large-scale supply of drones to Russia. It will be interesting to see how Putin reacts.
Israel has already eliminated some of the most senior leaders in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps. It has also reportedly destroyed the bulk of Iran’s long-range ballistic missiles and its air defences. According to the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi, the Natanz nuclear facility has been severely damaged.
Yet there are too many unknowns. What will this attack do to the Islamic Republic of Iran? Will it strengthen public support for the regime or will those who are resisting the mullahs feel more confident in their efforts to overthrow the regime? The excellent BBC security correspondent, Frank Gardner, argued this morning that Israel’s attack on Iran is a “dangerous gamble” because Iran will now be fully motivated to race for the bomb.
Iran is a wounded animal, reeling from a devastating blow. Israel attacked now because Iran is so vulnerable. It is this which makes Iran so dangerous; there are many ways in which the Iranians can wreak destruction throughout the Middle East. How will the Trump administration respond if Americans are killed in the region?
Expect a North Korean style withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. At best, it will be said that Israel will only delay Iran’s march to the bomb by a year or two. Israel will have to keep up the bombing sorties. Of course, a lot could happen in Iran, in that time. This is a case of playing for time, but no one is better at playing for time than Netanyahu.